Will China Invade Taiwan And If So, What Would Happen Next? 10 Reasons To Have Hope For Taiwan

For many observing the ongoing war raging in the Ukraine the question arises, will Taiwan be next? Will China invade Taiwan as it has long suggested it would through both it’s words and actions.

It’s easy to compare the situation with China and Taiwan to Russian and the Ukraine. Yet the question will China invade Taiwan requires looking not just at the similarities, but the differences. The difference in costs to both sides helps us understand the factors that determines the answer to this very serious question, will China invade Taiwan? And if China does invade Taiwan, then what?

will china invade taiwan, this is the moment of decision

Let’s begin by examining some important facts about Taiwan and it’s positioning in the world today. To understand the threat, to answer the question will China invade Taiwan, we need to appreciate what Taiwan is and what it represents.

  1. Taiwan is a democracy with free and fair elections that are verified by external and independent sources. It began the transition from a 1-party system in the late 1980’s, the process continued in the 1990’s and it has held democratic elections since 1996. This ranks Taiwan as a relatively “young democracy”.
  2. Answering the question will China invade Taiwan definitely requires understanding the relationship between Taiwan and the United States. Officially the USA accepts the “1-state” policy pushed by China which views Taiwan as part of it’s sovereign territory. Despite this acceptance, the US maintains strong ties with Taiwan and designates Taiwan as an important strategic ally. This puts Taiwan essentially one level below NATO allies in terms of strength of commitment by the US. The US government has stated on numerous occassions including as recently as Biden in 2023, that the United States would use military force to defend Taiwan in the event of a Chinese invasion.

Will China invade Taiwan and what makes Taiwan interesting?

  • Despite the ongoing political tensions and the possibility that China may invade Taiwan, the country has emerged as one of the “Four Asian Tigers” known for its rapid economic growth and development. Taiwan has a highly developed industrial economy and is a major producer of electronic components, including semiconductors, LCD screens, and solar panels.
  • Taiwan has a formidable military and has been particularly focused on developing a robust defense against China, which considers Taiwan a part of its territory and has threatened to use force to reunify the island with the mainland. The question of whether China will invade Taiwan remains a major concern for many in the region and around the world.
  • Despite the possibility of a Chinese invasion, Taiwan has a vibrant democracy, with a multi-party system and regular elections. The country’s president and members of its legislature are elected by popular vote, and Taiwan has a free press and a strong civil society. However, Taiwan’s status as a sovereign nation is not recognized by many countries, including China, which has sought to isolate Taiwan diplomatically.
  • The ongoing tensions between Taiwan and China have implications for the global economy, particularly in the technology sector. Taiwan is home to several world-renowned companies, including ASUS, HTC, and TSMC. TSMC (Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company) is the world’s largest contract chipmaker and plays a critical role in the global semiconductor industry. TSMC produces chips for many of the world’s leading technology companies, including Apple, Intel, and Qualcomm. The question of whether China will invade Taiwan has implications for the supply chain of these companies.
  • Taiwan has been particularly successful in managing the COVID-19 pandemic. The country implemented a comprehensive strategy that included early border closures, aggressive contact tracing, and widespread testing. As a result, Taiwan has had one of the lowest COVID-19 caseloads and death rates in the world. The ongoing question of whether China will invade Taiwan has implications for the region’s response to the pandemic, as well as for the geopolitical landscape more broadly.

What will the cost be for China and will China invade Taiwan?

If China were to invade Taiwan, the consequences would be significant. First and foremost, such an invasion would likely result in significant loss of life, both among military personnel and civilians. The conflict could also escalate, potentially leading to broader military engagement and the involvement of other countries in the region.

From an economic perspective, an invasion of Taiwan would be disruptive to global supply chains. As noted earlier, Taiwan is a major producer of electronic components, including semiconductors, LCD screens, and solar panels. A conflict could disrupt the production of these components, leading to shortages and price increases for consumers.

Moreover, an invasion of Taiwan would likely have significant political implications. The United States, Japan, and other countries in the region have longstanding security arrangements with Taiwan, and an invasion would put these arrangements to the test. The international community would likely condemn China’s actions, potentially leading to diplomatic isolation and economic sanctions.

Finally, an invasion of Taiwan would likely have long-term implications for China’s relations with the rest of the world. China is already facing criticism over its actions in Hong Kong and its treatment of Uighur Muslims in Xinjiang, and an invasion of Taiwan would only heighten concerns about China’s aggressive foreign policy. This could result in increased scrutiny from the international community and a more cautious approach to engaging with China in the future.

In conclusion, the question of whether China will invade Taiwan remains a major concern for many in the region and around the world. The potential costs and downsides of such an invasion are significant, including loss of life, economic disruption, and political fallout.

Enjoying this article about the state of affairs involving China and Taiwan where we attempt to answer the question will China invade Taiwan? Perhaps you’d also enjoy reading our other articles on a range of technology, economics and political topics.

What is the media and analysts saying about the question will China invade Taiwan?

In this recent France 24 broadcast the impact of Taiwan’s Prime Minister visiting members of the US government on US soil were discussed, Taiwan President in the US: Visit draws Beijing ire, Washington urges calm • FRANCE 24 English – YouTube

According to the YouTube channel Task & Purpose which focuses on war, conflict and geopolitics, China’s opportunity to invade Taiwan has come and gone. It reasons that the answer to the question will China invade Taiwan is a firm no because of 4 key factors that are quickly eroding: 4 Reasons China’s Outta Time to Invade Taiwan – YouTube

PolyMatter, another YouTube channel focused on geopolitics argues that Taiwan is not Ukraine and that the outcome would not follow the template set in Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. Why Taiwan is NOT Ukraine – YouTube

The demographics of China’s decline and why it helps answer the question will China invade Taiwan?

China’s demographic trends, particularly the country’s aging population, could play a significant role in determining whether China will invade Taiwan. China’s one-child policy, which was in place from 1979 to 2015, has resulted in an aging population and a shrinking workforce.

This demographic decline could limit China’s ability to sustain a large-scale military operation, such as an invasion of Taiwan.

Moreover, China’s demographic decline could exacerbate its economic challenges, further reducing its ability to engage in aggressive military action. As the workforce shrinks and the population ages, China will face increasing pressures to allocate resources to support its aging population, including healthcare, pensions, and social welfare programs.

This could limit China’s ability to invest in its military and pursue aggressive foreign policies, including an invasion of Taiwan. Therefore, while the demographics of China’s decline are complex and multifaceted, they could be a key factor in answering the question of whether China will invade Taiwan.

Will China invade Taiwan? A picture of the Raobe street night market in Taiwan.

China’s population compared to that of Taiwan, is this a key factor and will China invade Taiwan?

China’s population is over 130 times larger than that of Taiwan, which has a population of around 23 million. Given the significant difference in population size, some may argue that China would have little difficulty in invading Taiwan.

However, population size alone does not determine military success. Taiwan has a well-trained and well-equipped military, which would be able to put up a formidable defense against a Chinese invasion. Moreover, any military action against Taiwan would likely have significant economic and diplomatic consequences, including the potential for international isolation and economic sanctions.

Therefore, while China’s population is significantly larger than that of Taiwan, it is not necessarily a key factor in determining whether China will invade Taiwan. Other factors, such as Taiwan’s strategic importance in the region, the political and economic implications of a Chinese invasion, and the potential for international intervention, are also important considerations.

Ultimately, the question of whether China will invade Taiwan is complex and multifaceted, and will depend on a range of political, economic, and military factors.

10 reasons why we can be hopeful that China will not choose to invade Taiwan

  1. The international community is closely monitoring the situation and may intervene to prevent an invasion.
  2. A Chinese invasion of Taiwan would have significant economic consequences and disrupt global supply chains.
  3. Taiwan has a well-trained and well-equipped military that could put up a formidable defense.
  4. An invasion of Taiwan would likely result in significant loss of life and humanitarian concerns.
  5. China’s aging population and economic challenges may limit its ability to sustain a large-scale military operation.
  6. The question of whether China will invade Taiwan has been a source of tension for decades, and both sides have made efforts to maintain the status quo.
  7. Taiwan is a strategically important location, and any military action against it could lead to broader regional conflict.
  8. China’s aggressive foreign policy in recent years has led to increased international scrutiny and may make it more difficult for China to engage in aggressive military action.
  9. Taiwan has strong support from the United States and other countries in the region, which could deter China from taking military action.
  10. Diplomatic efforts to improve relations between China and Taiwan may reduce the likelihood of a military confrontation.

When will China invade Taiwan and why choose this timeline?

Many analysts have pointed out that to China the year 2025 has significance.

The year 2025 is significant for China because it marks the target year for the country’s “Made in China 2025” plan. This plan is a comprehensive industrial policy designed to transform China into a high-tech manufacturing powerhouse, with the goal of increasing China’s domestic production of high-tech goods and reducing reliance on foreign imports.

The “Made in China 2025” plan includes a range of initiatives, including increasing research and development spending, upgrading China’s manufacturing capabilities, and promoting the development of key technologies such as artificial intelligence, robotics, and new energy vehicles.

China sees this plan as a way to move up the global value chain and establish itself as a major player in the high-tech manufacturing sector. However, the plan has been a source of tension between China and its trading partners, particularly the United States, who have criticized the plan as unfairly favoring Chinese companies and distorting global trade.

Overall, the year 2025 represents a significant milestone for China’s ambitions to become a high-tech manufacturing leader, and the success or failure of the “Made in China 2025” plan could have significant implications for China’s economy and global trade relations.

Of course none of the importance of a given year means China will actually choose that year as their invasion timeline. What we do know is that no matter what choice China makes with respect to a Taiwan invasion, the fact is that the entire world will know about it.

China would need to move massive amounts of people and equipment in preparation for any invasion. The actual assault has been widely referred to as the 1000-mile swim. It’s nearly impossible even for China’s huge army to actually move all the equipment and soldiers that it needs to widely outnumber the Taiwan opposition.

when will china invade taiwan, and will china invade taiwan?

Why the reunification concept is false and doesn’t justify the cost involved in the question will China invade Taiwan?

The concept of “re-unification” as talked about by China is considered false by some because it implies that Taiwan is a renegade province that must be reunited with the mainland, whereas Taiwan considers itself a sovereign state with its own government, military, and economy.

While China claims Taiwan as part of its territory, Taiwan has been governed separately from mainland China since the end of the Chinese Civil War in 1949. Taiwan has its own democratically elected government and constitution, and its people identify as Taiwanese rather than Chinese.

The concept of “re-unification” implies that Taiwan is a part of China that needs to be brought back under mainland Chinese control, but this is not a view shared by Taiwan or many in the international community. Taiwan has argued that it is a sovereign state and should be recognized as such, rather than being viewed as a part of China that needs to be “reunified.”

Furthermore, the concept of “re-unification” is controversial because it could be seen as a justification for China to use military force to bring Taiwan under its control, which would have significant diplomatic, economic, and humanitarian implications.

Will China invade Taiwan and how would the world respond?

  1. Will China invade Taiwan without consequences? Absolutely not. We can expect immediate and aggressive sanctions from the United States within days of the attack if it were to occur.
  2. Will China invade Taiwan without facing direct military conflict with Taiwan’s allies? Probably not, the United States has frequently confirmed that it would use it’s vast military power in the region to defend Taiwan.
  3. Will China invade Taiwan and suffer significant casualties in the invasion? It is predicted that even if China is able to create an overwhelming invasion force, the Taiwan military will still have significant advantages due to the difficult geography. This combined with Taiwan’s significant firepower is predicted to lead to massive casualties on the Chinese side during any seafaring invasion of the island country.
  4. Will China invade Taiwan without economic challenges? Again the potential invasion presents potentially catastrophic consequences for China. The same sanctions currently placed on Russia, a net energy and food exporter, are believed to be crippling to China. Some commentators have even gone so far as to suggest that China could face such brutal food shortages in the aftermath of an invasion that a famine would ensue. Aside from the food security question, China’s entire industrial capacity relies heavily on energy imports which would likely become targets during any outbreak of war.
  5. Will China invade Taiwan successfully? This is a more potent and difficult question than we’ve examined in any other part of this discussion. Can China actually manage to take control of Taiwan? Many analysts suggest that doing this by direct means of an overwhelming amphibious assault would be difficult or impossible. What is often suggested as a potential winning strategy for China is to use a blockade to wear down the Taiwan state. This would in effect be a sea blockade as Taiwan is an island. Then the question becomes to what degree could the US and other allies work together to break the blockade? Most estimates are that such a blockade would become a massive floating target for US warships.

Casey Milne

Founder of SaberWP. PHP Programmer for the past 20-years.